When Countries Hedge: Gold in a Hard World

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Central banks added 220 tonnes to their gold reserves in the third quarter of 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and 10% higher year-on-year, according to the World Gold Council's latest data released. The buying came despite record-high gold prices, signaling persistent institutional demand. Year-to-date, net purchases reached 634 tonnes. This marks the fourth consecutive year of above-average buying, a pattern that warrants attention beyond specialist finance circles.

The trend reflects more than diversification for its own sake. It points to structural concerns about reserve management in an environment marked by geopolitical friction, elevated policy uncertainty, and questions about the durability of post-war settlement architecture.

Through the first nine months of 2025, central banks accumulated 634 tonnes of gold, slightly below the 724 tonnes purchased in the same period in 2024 but well above pre-2022 averages of 400 to 500 tonnes annually. Poland remained the year's dominant buyer, adding 67 tonnes year-to-date to holdings now totaling 515 tonnes.

China and India continue steady accumulation. India's Reserve Bank purchased approximately 600 kilos between April and September, lifting official holdings to around 880 tonnes. Two-thirds of third-quarter central-bank demand remains unreported, a pattern consistent since 2022. The signals are clear: reserve managers are seeking assets that provide liquidity under stress, insulation from duration risk in bond portfolios, and reduced exposure to policy decisions made in Washington or Brussels.

Reserve managers now increasingly flag the geopolitical weaponization of FX reserves as a risk. Recent freezes of foreign assets have made some traditional holdings feel less purely financial, and foreign U.S. Treasury custody at the New York Fed has fallen to its lowest level since 2012.

Gold, by contrast, avoids sovereign and credit counterparty risk and settles outside SWIFT-style rails. The dollar’s global reserve share remains broadly stable, but demand for non-liability reserve assets has risen alongside it. Central banks aren’t abandoning dollars; they’re hedging concentration.

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Institutional reserve logic translates into household finance more directly than it might appear. Diversification, discipline, and liquidity under stress are not exclusive to sovereigns. A modest allocation to gold—financial advisors often cite 5 to 10 percent in balanced portfolios—can reduce overall volatility and provide a hedge when both equities and bonds face pressure simultaneously.

Gold's low correlation with traditional assets makes it useful not as a return driver but as a stabilizer. It tends to perform when confidence in policy continuity or currency stability weakens. That role becomes more valuable in periods when bond yields and equity valuations move together, eroding the historical diversification benefits between stocks and fixed income. Convertibility and liquidity matter, too: gold remains globally fungible, with deep markets and transparent pricing.

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The persistence of central-bank gold buying, even at elevated prices, is a signal worth reading. It reflects caution, not panic; realism, not alarmism. What reserve managers hedge against is not collapse but complexity—and the recognition that in a multipolar, uncertain world, balance matters more than ever.