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Confidence in fiat currencies—the unspoken contract that has bound governments, central banks, and global markets since Bretton Woods collapsed—is coming under quiet but relentless strain. This is not the province of doomsayers or gold bugs anymore. It is the observable reality behind a suite of developments that span vaults in Astana, trading floors in Shanghai, and the desks of policymakers in Washington and Brussels.
Central banks accumulated 220 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2025, a 28 percent increase from the previous quarter, even as prices hovered near all-time highs.
While governments continue to print and promise, private investors are quietly positioning for what central banks already know: confidence has limits.
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The United States national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with more than $382 billion added in the first 23 days of a government shutdown alone. And in policy circles once firmly committed to post-Bretton Woods orthodoxy, the notion of gold revaluation—dismissed as fringe economics for decades—is now appearing in Federal Reserve working papers and academic journals.
The dollar may remain strong. Treasuries may retain their liquidity premium. But the foundation beneath them—belief in paper promises backed solely by political will and central-bank assurances—is weakening.
The Debt Illusion
Sovereign debt has long been treated as a form of economic alchemy: governments borrow, central banks provide assurance, and markets accept that the system is self-correcting. That faith is now under pressure. In May 2025, Moody's stripped the United States of its AAA credit rating, citing successive administrations' failure to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and rising interest costs. The agency projected federal deficits would widen to nearly 9 percent of GDP by 2035, driven by interest payments, entitlement spending, and low revenue generation.
Yet Treasury auctions continue. Demand persists. The machine keeps running. The question is how long faith alone can sustain monetary trust when the structural imbalance grows more pronounced with each passing quarter.
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The Return of Tangibility
Central banks have noticed. Their actions suggest a quiet pivot toward assets that cannot be devalued by decree or diluted through quantitative expansion. In the first nine months of 2025, central banks purchased 634 tonnes of gold, significantly higher than the pre-2022 average.
The development of gold-backed settlement systems signals a structural shift. BRICS nations are building parallel financial infrastructure outside the dollar system, anchored by the Shanghai Gold Exchange and expanding through regional hubs in Saudi Arabia and Singapore. Trade between Russia and China now settles mostly in rubles and yuan, proving that dollar-free operations can scale.
This reflects something broader than de-dollarization politics. It is a search for assets with intrinsic scarcity and independence from political risk. When the European Commission proposed tapping frozen Russian state assets to fund Ukraine, central banks responded by accelerating gold purchases for storage outside Western jurisdictions. The message was clear: reserves held in paper instruments denominated in foreign currencies are subject to confiscation or freezing. Gold stored physically in sovereign territory is not.
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The Limits of Belief
The dollar remains dominant, and Treasuries still anchor global finance. Yet beneath that stability, the foundation is shifting. When central banks buy gold at record prices and policymakers openly discuss revaluation, these are not coincidences—they are early signs of a system repricing its own trust.
The next reset may not come from digital currencies or decrees, but from a slow re-anchoring of value in what cannot be printed or frozen. Once trust erodes, rebuilding it takes generations.
Deniss Slinkins,
Global Financial Journal
