There is a growing disconnect in U.S. markets.
As we close 2025, equity valuations have pushed beyond 220% of GDP—a level reached only during the most speculative moments of the last 100 years.
When asset prices rise this far ahead of the economy, investors don't necessarily lose money immediately. They lose time.
Future returns have been pulled forward, and the math suggests we are entering a "lost decade" for paper assets.
Most investors are ignoring this signal. But the biggest player in the game is already moving.
Mirage of Security
One reason markets feel calm is that volatility is low. Corporate earnings haven’t collapsed. And AI optimism continues to dominate narratives.
But valuation doesn’t work like sentiment.
When asset prices rise faster than the economy supporting them, the "easy money" has already been made. This is exactly why late-cycle markets feel comfortable right before they become frustrating.
Why Gold Keeps Re-Entering the Conversation
Gold isn’t rising because investors expect the world to end. It rises when real returns compress and capital preservation becomes more important than growth.
In the final weeks of 2025, gold has continued to push higher — not on fear, but on reallocation.
At the same time:
Market valuations remain extreme
AI enthusiasm is showing cracks beneath the surface
Volatility gauges remain unusually calm
That combination has rarely lasted long.
The February Signal
There’s another reason gold is back in focus.
Every quarter, one document forces reality into public view: Warren Buffett’s 13F filing. The next one lands in mid-February.
Historically, when Buffett shifts capital after long periods of patience, markets notice — but usually after the move is already underway.
That timing matters. Because the best positioning doesn’t happen once confirmation arrives. It happens before consensus catches up.
Where This Leads
As we enter 2026, the market’s biggest risk isn’t collapse. It’s overconfidence.
When valuations are stretched, returns become selective. Discipline matters more than optimism. And assets that don’t depend on growth assumptions start to matter again.
That’s why gold — and the companies tied to it — are quietly returning to portfolios that prioritize durability over excitement.
Not because something is broken. But because cycles still exist.
And they always will.
Buffett Is Preparing His Next Big Move
from Golden Portfolio
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Written by Deniss Slinkins
Global Financial Journal
